Let’s face it: We might as well skip the holiday shopping season altogether. If Best Buy is already reporting drops in consumer spending of “seismic” proportions, Americans might actually exult in being thrifty this year. Imagine that! Santa goes on a strict diet. I see fashion magazine touting the virtues of "Depression Era Gray."

How will online advertising fair in this major economic downturn? While media companies, including Google – the 800-pound Gorilla of search advertising – brace for a decline, the drop may be cushioned as advertisers spend more online than they otherwise would offline. Amish Jani, a Managing Director of FirstMark Capital, remarked that growth should be expected given how “woefully behind ad dollars are to time spent online.” Eric Schmidt, Google CEO, recently commented that “Google was better positioned than other advertising companies to survive a recession.” And finally, David Armano believes “the slower economy and lowered budgets will force people to rethink their plans in which digital might finally be looked at as good alternatives.”

If this is the case, online advertising may be breathing (relatively) steady in 2009 as advertisers continue to grow online ad spending while scaling-back on other media. Wishful thinking perhaps, but if shoppers are spending more time online (for entertainment, community or find the bargains) it makes sense to keep 'dem search and display ads running. They may not convert consumers right away – especially if there’s no money in their pockets to complete the transaction – but brands should avoid going completely “dark” in down economic times. Moreover, recent studies conducted for Google show a lift from paid search advertising, across multiple brand metrics, even when an impression does not prompt shoppers to click. (Shoot me an email if you’re curious to hear more about these studies: cate@netpopresearch.com)